Reply letter to the Minister of Economy and Development Mr. Rep. Papadimitriou, sent by the President of the General Confederation of Professionals, Craftsmen and Merchants (GSEVEE) and IME GSEBEE Mr. George Kavathas after the Minister’s statements, by which directly challenges the findings the semi-annual survey of the Institute of Small Enterprises (IME) of GSEBEE given a few days before the publicity. In a statement at the Athens Agency Minister of Economy and Development Mr. Rep. Papadimitriou disputes the survey data. A survey carried out with absolute scientific terms from 2009 until today distanced from topical political issues. Unfortunately, research findings verified over the years, which in no way pleased us, as behind the “padlocks” hidden tragic human stories. Professionals who not only lose their jobs, but are invited to live with a heavy financial burden for life.
The items posted are solely scientific analysis and documentation product, given the margin of error always exists in the statistical science and we are always available to Mr. Rep. Papadimitriou to provide any clarification on how the survey was conducted.
The Minister of Economy and Development reasonably wonder how it is possible to shut down 40% of companies, ie 4 out of 10 across the country, and this translates to only 18,700 companies, when in Greece 99.6% of companies are SMEs, representing approximately 700,000 businesses.
The answer is very simple and honest: 4 out of 10 businesses express fear / anxiety that next time felt they were / or very likely to close. It is obvious that this indicator is a change / optimism index rather padlock indicator alone compared with previous studies can produce reliable conclusions (as you’ll see in the slide following rate is improving, but remains quite high, reflecting the feeling of uncertainty experienced by small companies).
Following is the full text of the letter:
LETTER TO THE MINISTER OF ECONOMY
“Dear Mr. Minister.
Because our principle is that every news statement and should always be checked and intersected thoroughly evaluated before and as we must preserve the credibility of the institution ekprosopoume- and we believe that we have achieved in full until today, we believe that one should go in some clarification on your alleged declarations reproduced by particular electronic means, on the reliability of investigations IME GSEBEE.
First, the findings of the six-monthly surveys economic climate IME GSEBEE are completely distanced from topical political issues, while there has never been any political interference (internal or external) during the processing of the findings and / or the final version of the results. The items posted are solely scientific analysis and documentation product, given the margin of error always exists in statistical science. The publication of research is not determined by political circumstances but by the time of completion of the processing of the findings. If someone did not bother to study all the research climate IME GSEBEE from 2009 to today in conjunction with the specific timing would be able to recognize the validity of the above. Additionally, the results of the interim economic sentiment surveys have been used by international organizations, universities, the European Commission (SBA Factsheet), the International Labor Organization and the European Association of Craft, Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (UEAPME) for deriving the overall economic climate results for SMEs in Europe.
It is true that throughout the duration of the economic crisis (2010-2016), when the effects of the economic climate survey published recipients have often been complaints or disputes, usually from government.
However, these issues are resolved through consultation and discussions at scientific / technical level without prior or subsequent public display. In each and every case the necessary technical clarifications given. In all cases also the short-term forecasts of IME GSEBEE finally confirmed.
Finally an item you need to know is that we do not control the way in which journalists or politicians choose to view data from surveys of IME GSEBEE. Nor can we intervene in any publication that shows itself exaggeration or even distorts the results of investigations IME GSEBEE.
According to your statement, (published by ANA-MPA and in.gr, which reprinted by Dawn the 3/31/2017) surveys IME GSEBEE are unreliable because they predict that it will close 40% of businesses, and it is estimated in absolute terms that would shut down 18,700 enterprises. Good question, as reportedly expressed: how is it possible to shut down 40% of companies, ie 4 out of 10 across the country, and this translates to only 18,700 companies, when in Greece 99.6 % of enterprises are SMEs, representing approximately 700,000 businesses. The answer is very simple and honest: 4 out of 10 businesses express fear / anxiety that next time felt they were / or very likely to close. It is obvious that this indicator is a change / optimism index rather padlock indicator alone compared with previous studies can produce reliable conclusions (as you’ll see in the slide No. 68 presentation that enclose you, the index is improving, but remains quite high reflecting the feeling of uncertainty experienced by small businesses).
The padlocks of assessment index obviously can not be inferred from the above figure. Rather, it is a complex revaluation of the intensity of the above index, combined with statistical findings associated with damage occurrence, indebtedness and downsizing trend. It is clear that if someone your consultant / partner entered the process to investigate this apparent contradiction initially, would readily available simple interpretation.
Moreover, we would point out that the IME GSEBEE not assess the number of net closures (records-offs) because it does not know the number of new recommendations, a number that is a function of the business climate and growth prospects, and certainly subject research study.
In principle, it is for the official statistics authorities and research institutions of the state to calculate total number and appreciate the recommendations / deletions business flows and to allocate secondary research in scientific bodies, institutes and Universities. It is worth noting that to date, the total number of enterprises operating in the country comes through simulations SBA Factsheet and Structural Business Statistics- which take interviews from our institution for these calculations, not by official census data . Despite the significant progress made on the operation of GEMI, it is clear that remaining gaps and inconsistencies as to the proper statistical representation of the number of SMEs operating in the country. FHW GSEBEE has repeatedly raised the lack of information to the competent authorities, the Ministers who had the honor of a background in the key position of the Ministry. Economy and Development on statistics and tax authorities and other research institutions.
FHW GSEBEE also always available political and state institutions and is not subject to any form of control or self-censorship, particularly when it comes to analysis of primary statistical data produced or processed the same.
It is worth mentioning that in the previous six-month investigation, the IME GSEBEE unfortunately verified 1) as to the number of padlocks, 2) with respect to the voltage limit escalation of unemployment.
Sir,
FHW GSEBEE has demonstrated by its recommendation that operates solely with investigating the scientific truth regardless of political considerations, trying to produce results useful for the promotion of the national economy. Not we hide that during the crisis often remained hopelessly alone in the constant defense of the values it represents.
Whereas the above cited figures, clarified the methodological framework for the interpretation of primary data generated by the IME GSEBEE, we consider that the alleged Your returns are void.
In This historic moment we are living, the time that trading is at a critical juncture and the country needs a minimum level of national consensus and unity, we must all work hard together to exit the Greek society and economy of the difficult phase passing . Instead petrovoloume messengers, we must put all one building block to create real new positive news for our country.
In this context, we request formal meeting with you to discuss strategic policy issues in the country’s development and for the position of SMEs in the new era. This meeting will probably be a good occasion to discuss and individual technical issues related to the statistical recording of Greek SMEs sizes. “